AGT-502 · Layer 5 · Post-Sale Retention
Churn Risk Detector
Consumes AGT-501 health scores. Applies renewal proximity multiplier to produce urgency-adjusted risk tiers. Fires tiered alerts to AM (primary), CSM (adoption context), and manager (Critical + high ACV). Triggers intervention playbooks and downstream agent escalation where warranted.
L5
Daily — runs after AGT-501 batch
Immediate: sponsor departure, score drop ≥15pts, tier transition
New table: ChurnRiskLog
Ripple: AM as primary (corrects original spec)
Role correction from original spec: AM is the relationship and revenue owner — primary alert recipient on all churn risk events. CSM receives concurrent notification as adoption context (they own the usage story, not the customer decision). Manager notified on Critical tier + ACV ≥ segment top 25th percentile.
Renewal proximity multiplier
≤ 30 days
× 0.85
Maximum urgency — any gap is amplified
31–60 days
× 0.92
Elevated — renewal decision forming
61–90 days
× 0.96
Moderate — within planning horizon
> 90 days
× 1.0
No adjustment
Multiplier applied to AGT-501 health_score (post payment modifier). Lower multiplier = lower effective score = higher urgency. A score of 65 (normally Medium) at ≤30 days to renewal becomes 55 (High). This is not a separate scoring pass — it is urgency-weighting for alert routing only.
Risk tiers + notification rules
Critical
0 – 44
Immediate alert: AM + CSM. Manager if ACV ≥ segment top 25%. Executive intervention playbook activated. Any further drop triggers another immediate alert.
High
45 – 62
Immediate alert on tier entry: AM + CSM. Weekly digest thereafter. Recovery plan required within 5 business days — logged to ChurnRiskLog.
Medium
63 – 77
Weekly digest only: AM. CSM action recommended, not urgent. Monitor for trend direction.
Low
78 – 100
Weekly digest only. No action required. Score + delta for awareness. Pass account_id to AGT-503 as expansion candidate.
Alert rules
Immediate alert
Score drop ≥15 pts in one run. Tier transition in either direction. Sponsor departure flag set by AGT-501 (fires on same run, no wait for next AGT-502 cycle). Payment status transitions to Failed or Suspended.
Weekly digest
All accounts not triggering immediate alert. Sorted Critical → Low within AM book. One digest per AM, one per CSM scoped to their accounts. SLM receives segment-level summary. CRO receives org-wide NRR risk summary feeding AGT-702.
Manager notification
Critical tier AND ACV ≥ segment top 25th percentile. Concurrent with AM+CSM immediate alert — not a follow-up.
Payment alerts
Finance notified first (it is a billing event). AM + CSM notified concurrently. Routing: Finance → AM → CSM, not sequentially — all three simultaneously.
Downstream triggers
Competitive threat + no plan
Trigger AGT-403 Competitive Intelligence Agent for displacement brief. competitive_risk_flag set by AGT-501.
Low tier (score ≥78)
Pass account_id to AGT-503 Expansion Trigger as expansion candidate. Healthy accounts are eligible for expansion plays.
CRO / GTM Health feed
Weekly org-wide NRR risk summary feeds AGT-702 GTM Health Monitor. Critical + High account count and ACV at risk = NRR health input.
Renewal opp check
If renewal proximity ≤90 days and no open renewal opportunity exists: flag to AM with prompt to open renewal opp. Not an autonomous opp creation — AM action required.
Sample output JSON
{
"account_id": "ACC-10001",
"account_name": "Apex Dynamics",
"health_score": 44, // from AGT-501 (post payment modifier)
"renewal_proximity_days": 28,
"renewal_multiplier": 0.85,
"effective_risk_score": 37, // health_score × multiplier
"churn_risk_tier": "critical",
"score_delta": -18, // vs prior day
"alert_type": "immediate",
"active_flags": ["sponsor_departure_flag", "competitive_risk_flag"],
"recommended_action": "AM to contact executive team within 24 hours. Sponsor departed — identify new VP contact and request emergency business review. CSM to continue usage recovery plan. Loop manager immediately given ACV ($280K, Enterprise top quartile).",
"downstream_triggers": ["agt_403_competitive_brief"],
"notify": {
"am": "Hannah Brooks",
"csm": "George Lin",
"manager": "Marcus Webb",
"manager_reason": "Critical + ACV $280K ≥ Enterprise P75"
},
"expansion_candidate": false,
"scored_at": "2026-03-28T06:00:00Z"
}
Schema additions (v19)
ChurnRiskLog new
account_idFKReference to Accounts
run_datedatePK with account_id
effective_risk_scoreinthealth_score × renewal_multiplier
churn_risk_tierenumcritical / high / medium / low
renewal_multiplierdecimal0.85 / 0.92 / 0.96 / 1.0
renewal_proximity_daysintDays to renewal opp close date
alert_typeenumimmediate / weekly_digest / none
recommended_actiontextSpecific action tied to lowest-scoring dimension + renewal context
recovery_plan_loggedboolRequired within 5 days for High tier entries
downstream_triggersJSONAgent IDs triggered by this run
expansion_candidateboolTRUE if tier = low → passed to AGT-503